I introduced the assist-shot chart in a previous post. This time I wanted to do something more quantitative. We know that not all assists are created equal - it is easier to convert an assist for a layup than an assist for a long jump shot. In this post I'm going to try and break down where the assists go to (i.e. the location of the shooter).
For example, let's break down the assists by James Harden from last season (2014-2015):
We can see that Harden passed 3.57 assists to a shooter which is within 8 feet or less from the basket. This ranked him 8th in the NBA last season. Harden led the NBA in assists to the corner 3s and barely had any assists for midrange and long 2 jumpers. This fits with the Daryl Morey approach - layups and corner 3s are the most effective shots in basketball. Harden implements the Morey approach to near perfection.
Let's take a look at the 2014-2015 assist leaders for each zone:
Wall leads the NBA in assists into the restricted zone. I was surprised to see that since I was assuming Chris Paul would lead the NBA in that category with all the lob city alley-oop highlights. He is actually 4th in the NBA in assists in that zone but has many assists for long 2s, mostly from the top of the key area. Looking back at the assist-shot chart from the previous post, most of those assists go to Blake Griffin.
Dividing the court to 14 zones can be a little too much information when comparing players. Instead I divided the court to 4 zones - within 8 feet of the basket, 8-16 feet from the basket, 16-24 feet from the basket (excluding corner 3s) and 3s. This can be seen in the illustration below:
Below is a list summarizing the 2014-15 assists distribution into the 4 zones. The list is sorted by the number of assists to shooters in the restricted zone instead of the conventional total number of assists:
We can see the Harden led the NBA in assists for 3s closely followed by Lawson and LeBron James. Chris Paul has by far the most assists for long 2s followed by Wall and Rondo. While Westbrook gets a bad reputation for being a ball hog most of his assists go to players that are close to the hoop.
Below is a list summarizing the 2015-16 assists distribution (as of Nov. 23rd, 2015):
We can see the resurrection of Rondo who currently leads the NBA in total assists, assists to the restricted area and assists to 3s. On the other hand, Ty Lawson seems to struggle assisting for the Rockets. I'm assuming it is because you need the ball in order to pass it and Harden has it in his hands most of the time. Lawson's time of possession (of the ball) went down from 7.7 minutes per game last year to 4.2 so far this year. Mudiay seems to make an impact in terms of assist. Now he just needs to start shooting a little better than me.
Conclusion:
Harden's passing goes to shooters in the most effective places on the court - the corner 3s and within 8 feet of the basket.
While Chris Paul has a name for being a superior passer, this data indicates that he might not be as good as people think (but still top 5 in the NBA). The opposite can be said about Westbrook.
Rondo is back!!! If Cousins can stay healthy, not elbow opponents and show restraint (by not choking Karl) this Kings team can be dangerous this year. And when you add my favorite Israeli in the NBA to the mix...